Earlier this week, Filmmaker launched a new newsletter, Considerations, by Tyler Coates. Following and handicapping the annual film industry awards races, Considerations will feature sharp commentary on the pictures, the players, the money and the spectacle. Subscribe here to receive it for free, and first, every Tuesday. — Editor

The best way to begin this newsletter is with an introduction and a list of my bonafides. I was previously the awards editor at The Hollywood Reporter, where I’d been covering the Oscar and Emmy races since 2019. I’ve spent over a decade in the digital media content mines, having also worked at Esquire, Decider and Flavorwire. And decades before I became an entertainment journalist, I had my own awards show — which took place on the floor of my childhood bedroom, often serving as a reaction to what I considered were the wrong Academy Award wins. (L.A. Confidential swept the Coatesies in 1998. Take that, James Cameron!) 

I usually spend this time of year catching up on movies I missed at the big festivals — Cannes, Telluride, TIFF and Venice. I don’t have FOMO about not flying to another country or hiking through Colorado to partake in the celebrity sightings, check out brand activations and record the length of end credits standing ovations down to the millisecond. What I really miss about attending film festivals is actually seeing movies. A bunch of movies, all in one place. And, of course, seeing them first. 

Instead, I’ve been in Los Angeles, where there are also a lot of movies. For the last few weeks, I’ve been driving across town to various screening rooms in corporate office buildings to experience the magic of cinema — all in preparation for Hollywood’s biggest night, which feels like a lifetime away but is, in fact, on March 3. 

I realize the irony in having to “catch up” in mid-October on movies that most people, including thousands of Academy voters, might not see until the new year. But as someone with an interest in the Oscar races — and as someone who likes to observe the machinery of awards season, from the niche guild awards to the big, televised spectacles — right now is perhaps the most important part of the year: when the buzz is building. 

But how does the buzz get built? 

I’ve been thinking a lot about a line from one of my favorite movies, James L. Brooks’ Broadcast News (nominated for seven Oscars in 1988, won zero). The brilliant and anxious network news producer Jane (Holly Hunter) attempts to woo the very hot, yet very dim, reporter Tom (William Hurt) — while also ranting about unseemly practices among D.C.’s political journalists. “Another thing I can’t stand,” she complains, “is when reporters bullshit with each other after a briefing, and then one of them quotes the other in his story as ‘White House sources say…’”

Similarly, a lot of Oscar buzz feels very insidery. 

But there’s one narrative most of my peers in the awards space can agree upon: The current Oscar race is wide open. Unpredictable, even! To which I must repeat: We are four and a half months from the Academy Awards! Which is why I am less invested in debating how many nominations The Brutalist is likely to receive (overheard before a screening of  Blitz at the Apple offices in Culver City: a confident 10) than I am in learning if the movies I haven’t yet seen (for example, The Brutalist!) are as good as I’m hearing they are. 

The film festivals I missed do offer some guidance for the frontrunners thanks to the prizes they picked up at their premieres. Anora (Neon) took the Palme d’Or at Cannes, while Emilia Pérez (Netflix) earned the jury prize and best actress for its four stars: Karla Sofía Gascón, Zoe Saldaña, Selena Gomez and Adriana Paz. Emilia Pérez and Anora were the runners-up for the TIFF People’s Choice Award; NEON will release the winner, Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck, next year. A24 did well at Venice, with Babygirl earning the Volpi Cup for best actress (Nicole Kidman) and Brady Corbet winning the Silver Cup for best director for The Brutalist. The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics), Pedro Almodóvar’s first English-language feature, won the Gold Lion for best picture. And the strongest reviews of films that didn’t win awards in tandem with their festival debuts also give an early sense of what overall critical sentiment might be. Among the upcoming titles currently resting comfortably with 90% or higher Rotten Tomatoes scores include Focus Features’ Conclave, Roadside Attractions’ Exhibiting Forgiveness, Netflix’s The Piano Lesson, Searchlight’s A Real Pain and Paramount’s September 5.

But don’t forget about the movies that are already out! Warner Bros. will hope to score another slew of nominations for Dune: Part Two (its predecessor earned 10 noms, winning six Oscars), which opened in March. Can Amazon MGM Studios reinvigorate the overall horniness people had for Challengers when they first saw it in April? MUBI has done a hell of a job with The Substance, a twisted body horror crowd-pleaser (imagine that!) which also boasts the best screenplay prize from Cannes, but it’s hard to imagine the Academy being so, well, cool and not squeamish. And as for Joker: Folie à Deux… I guess an 11-minute standing ovation at Venice is pretty meaningless, no? 

And if I can just throw out some titles I’ve liked and haven’t mentioned yet: I was particularly impressed with RaMell Ross’ Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM Studios), an emotional and immersive adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s celebrated novel that features a heartbreaking Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor; Azazel Jacobs’ His Three Daughters (Netflix), a tight family drama with three towering performances from Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne and Elizabeth Olsen in the title roles; Aaron Schimberg’s A Different Man (A24), a hilariously dark comedy with Sebastian Stan delivering the best work of his career; Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths (Bleecker Street), which reunites the writer-directed with Secrets & Lies star (and Oscar nominee) Marianne Jean-Baptiste; and Malcolm Washington’s adaptation of August Wilson’s Pulitzer Prize-winning The Piano Lesson (Netflix), the platonic ideal of a stage-to-screen adaptation that should land Danielle Deadwyler a deserved nom (which might not make up for her snub for Till in 2023, but still). 

And there are many movies left to screen for critics — including Searchlight’s A Complete Unknown, Paramount’s Gladiator II and Focus Features’ Nosferatu.

Reflecting back to this time last year, Oppenheimer was not a sure bet to sweep the Oscars in October 2023. After all, Christopher Nolan’s historical epic had lost to Barbie at the box office, and Greta Gerwig was considered a frontrunner to win best director. Meanwhile Charles Melton was garnering a lot of buzz — and early awards from voting bodies with little Academy overlap — for Todd Haynes’ May December. Killers of the Flower Moon breakout Lily Gladstone was tapped as the actress to beat when the film premiered at Cannes in June. American Fiction, the TIFF People’s Choice Award winner, gave veteran character actor Jeffrey Wright his second leading role since his breakthrough performance in 1996’s Basquiat.

All of those are great narratives. But stories often have unexpected twists.

Until the professional guilds, whose voting bodies crossover with the Academy’s near 10,000 members, begin unveiling their award nominees in late December — and the Academy’s December 17 shortlist announcement reveals the 10-15 films for which certain categories’ branch members may vote — all of the punditry and predicting will be purely based on vibes. Meanwhile, there will be so many podcast interviews, glossy magazine profiles, FYC billboards, star-studded screenings, roundtable appearances and the Golden Globes. These contenders will be as visible as possible over the next few months, and those with the momentum and desire to hit the campaign trail of regional festivals and tastemaker events may have the best chance to wrap their hands around an Oscar.

A lot will happen between now and Feb. 18, when the final Oscar voting ends, and I’m thrilled to dissect it all for Filmmaker.