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Considerations
Covering the annual film industry awards races, with sharp commentary on the pictures, the players, the money and the spectacle. by Tyler Coates
Conclave and Other Campaigns
Conclave Every Tuesday Tyler Coates publishes his new Filmmaker newsletter, Considerations, devoted to the awards race. To receive it early and in your in-box, subscribe here.
Here we are, on Election Day — or, if you didn’t prioritize reading this newsletter on Tuesday, Election Week — and there’s no better distraction from the realities of the world and its discontents than the movies. Or, at least that’s what I’m telling myself. If your election anxiety was triggered in the middle of Focus Features’ Conclave, you’re not alone. I’m very curious to see how that movie in particular will be received post-election, as the concept of choosing the lesser evil and the unfortunate reality that there is no such thing as the perfect candidate will certainly feel a little different after this current contentious political moment than it did when it first hit theaters two weeks prior.
Conclave is a surefire crowd pleaser, a handsome production set in Vatican City in which all of the crafts — from the production and costume design to the cinematography and score — are firing on all cylinders. Edward Berger, whose previous film All Quiet on the Western Front earned nine Oscar nominations and four wins in 2023 (including best international feature), could levy his now-established status as a prestige auteur and nab his first best director nom for his latest film; the script by Peter Straughan is similarly an adapted screenplay contender and could also earn its writer his second nom (after Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy in 2013). It also boasts an incredible cast of acting titans: Ralph Fiennes, John Lithgow, Stanley Tucci and Isabella Rossellini, none of whom have ever won an Oscar. Fiennes is the leader of the ensemble and has been already identified as a frontrunner in the best actor race, but its supporting players — including celebrated Italian performer Sergio Castellitto — also get plenty of scenery to chew in this big-screen adaptation of Robert Harris’ pulpy novel.
I enjoyed Conclave a lot, as have many friends who I consider “normals” — that is, people who happen to see movies when they see them, who are not major cinephiles or folks with any interest in awards season and its contenders (and bless them for that). Simply put: It’s a highly entertaining, somewhat ridiculous (complimentary) examination of what happens when the church’s cardinals band together to elect a new pope. And when a movie is simply really fun — well-directed and full of grand performances — it’s sometimes easy not to consider it as “an Oscar movie.” And even I understand the problem with that; it’s reductive and dismissive, narrow-minded and unimaginative.
Back in 2009, following outcry after the critically acclaimed box office hits The Dark Knight and WALL-E failed to earn best picture nominations, the Academy expanded the category to a potential 10 nominees and changed the voting process to a preferential ballot, ultimately deciding in 2022 that the category would include a guaranteed 10 nominees moving forward. There’s a perennial complaint that the Academy doesn’t reflecting the tastes of the general movie going public; the Oscars’ dwindling ratings is often used as proof that those picking the best films of the year are out of touch with the real audiences (strangely, no one seems to have this argument over the Emmys’ similar low viewership, and that awards show actually celebrates the medium through which it is delivered).
In recent years, the category’s expansion has paid off: recent best picture nominees include massive blockbusters like Avatar (which earned $2.9 billion globally) and its sequel Avatar: The Way of Water ($2.3 billion), Black Panther ($1.3 billion), Joker ($1.1 billion) and Top Gun: Maverick ($1.5 billion). Part of the reason why this year’s best picture lineup feels so unpredictable is because two of last year’s frontrunners debuted in July to massive returns: the ultimate winner Oppenheimer may not have crossed the $1 billion mark (it came close at $975 million), but fellow best picture nominee Barbie certainly did (it earned $1.4 billion). Crazy to imagine that the second-place box office contender of Barbenheimerwas ultimately the awards victor.
Now, as a veteran of the trades and someone who knows the importance of FYC spending, I always recognized that big studio releases were good for business — the smaller distributors simply don’t have the budgets to compete with Netflix’s ad spend, or even Warner Bros. Discovery’s and Universal’s. Films from A24, Focus Features, Neon and Searchlight have the prestige pedigree thanks to their distributors’ brand recognition, which gives blockbusters the harder fight to prove their worth (or at least that’s a selling point for a magazine cover wrap).
Dune was a best picture nominee and won six Oscars in 2022; Gladiator took best picture and best actor (for Russell Crowe) in 2001, plus three other honors. Their sequels could land two of the 10 spots, although Dune: Part Two’s March 1 release date means it has to catch voters’ attention once again to be a strong contender (which explains the number of showings recently in L.A. with celebrity hosts). Gladiator II, which I have not yet seen and may not catch until its official release, has earned big buzz from press on both coasts who caught early screenings late last month. Even Denzel Washington, a two-time Oscar winner, is a probable best supporting actor contender (and he can use that status to also campaign on behalf of son Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson, which could also earn him a best picture nomination as the film’s producer).
Another big studio release I haven’t yet seen: Wicked. Here’s where I will make a confession: I love musicals and musical theater, and yet… Wicked has never been for me. It hit Broadway when I was in college, and I was more drawn to the edgier Avenue Q (which beat Wicked for that year’s Tony for best musical). I’m also highly dubious of this two-film event — it’s absolutely bananas to split a nearly three-hour, two-act musical into two films, unless someone wants to stretch Sunday in the Park With George into five hours of content — and yet… I’ve heard really good things about it. Sometimes one must go into a blockbuster with an open mind. And at a time like this? Give me Jonathan Bailey and some CGI flying monkeys. I could stand the distraction from, well … those other campaigns.
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