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Considerations
Covering the annual film industry awards races, with sharp commentary on the pictures, the players, the money and the spectacle. by Tyler Coates
Considerations: Who’s Leading the Acting Races?
Demi Moore in The Substance Every Tuesday Tyler Coates publishes his new Filmmaker newsletter, Considerations, devoted to the awards race. To receive it early and in your in-box, subscribe here.
This is the most important week of Oscar campaigning, the conclusion to what we collectively refer to as Phase 1: A slew of guilds announce their nominees this week (including the DGA, PGA and SAG, plus sound editors and mixers, art directors and cinematographers), and the Academy opens nominations ballots on Wednesday before closing the voting window on Sunday. (As such, campaign spending pauses from the end of voting until the nominations are announced on Friday, Jan. 17, so I’ll be back with the first newsletter of Phase 2 on Jan. 21.)
It’s hard not to feel like a broken record at this point because, I’m afraid, the Oscar race still feels as wide open as when I started writing this newsletter months ago—it’s anybody’s game, which is really what we should hope for at this point. Let’s bring in some twists and turns rather than forgone conclusions! While my last dispatch narrowed the best picture race to 15 titles, I am confident that the presumptive 10 nominees will line up with the AFI’s top films of the year: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emila Pérez, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Sing Sing and Wicked.
Whittling down the performers in their respective races gets more complicated.
The best actor race (which, as a gay man, I’ll admit is probably the category I care the least about!) seems pretty straightforward this year with just five leading men maintaining frontrunner status throughout the season: The Brutalist’s Adrien Brody, A Complete Unknown’s Timothée Chalamet, Queer’s Daniel Craig, Sing Sing’s Colman Domingo and Conclave’s Ralph Fiennes. The two wildcards would be A Real Pain’s Jesse Eisenberg (although he’s more likely to earn an original screenplay nom) and Sebastian Stan, whose Golden Globe win on Sunday for best actor, musical/comedy for A Different Man raises his profile—but his equally compelling performance as Donald Trump in The Apprentice could split the vote against him.
The best actress race (which, as a gay man… well, you get it!) is always pretty juicy, mostly because there are so many notable contenders. Demi Moore and Fernanda Torres are two performers I’d consider the darkest horses in this race, but their respective Golden Globe wins for best actress (Moore was the musical/comedy winner for The Substance, Torres the drama winner for Brazil’s international entry I’m Still Here) will put the pair top of mind with Academy voters this week. Both have great campaign narratives behind them: Moore is an industry veteran who has never received the Academy’s recognition; a best actress nom for Torres would be the second for a Brazilian performer, 25 years after her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, became the first for Central Station. Critics have been praising the performances from Hard Truths’ Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Babygirl’s Nicole Kidman and Anora’s Mikey Madison, who I can see all landing noms for their roles. Karla Sofía Gascón’s performance in Emilia Pérez could make her the first transgender actress to earn the nod, and a history-making nomination is always a boon for a performer and the Academy. Wicked’s Cynthia Erivo is also a possibility, as is Maria’s Angelina Jolie—but their campaigns lack compelling narratives and, well, cinema is all about telling stories, isn’t it?
I can already see the Globe winners for supporting actor and actress—A Real Pain’s Kieran Culkin and Emilia Pérez’s Zoe Saldaña, both industry veterans who haven’t had chances before to flex their chops in prestige films (or, at least in Culkin’s case, not since he’s established himself as a prestige actor with his Emmy-winning performance in HBO’s Succession)—taking the respective Oscars in March. But who could be their competition? Among the supporting actors, A Complete Unknown’s Edward Norton, The Brutalist’s Guy Pearce and Conclave’s Stanley Tucci are likely to land nods, but I’m hoping Anora’s Yura Borisov or Sing Sing’s Clarence Maclin sneak in. Wicked’s Ariana Grande and Conclave’s Isabella Rossellini have their supporting actress noms in a lock. I’m personally rooting for The Piano Lesson’s Danielle Deadwyler (a longshot, I’ll admit) and Nickel Boys’ Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (who has a slight edge, despite limited screen time). The Brutalist’s Felicity Jones may also find a place here despite showing up in the film’s second, arguably more challenging act.
Which directors of the best picture nominees are likely to land best director nominations? I’m predicting, begrudgingly, an all-male lineup that includes Anora’s Sean Baker, The Brutalist’s Brady Corbet, Conclave’s Edward Berger, Nickel Boys’ RaMell Ross and Dune: Part Two’s Denis Villeneuve—but if I had unexpected players in mind, I’d toss in Hard Truths’ Mike Leigh and I’m Still Here’s Walter Salles, as both are internationally respected and may have enough supporters to land a stray nom even if their films don’t make it into the top category.
Of course, as of this writing, there are still a lot of factors in play before I can make my final nominations predictions—once the guilds weigh in with their nominations, I’ll feel more comfortable narrowing down my final five predictions for each category. In lieu of a newsletter of final conjecture next Tuesday, keep an eye out next week for a post on Filmmaker with my full list of picks before Friday’s nominations announcement.
