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Considerations
Covering the annual film industry awards races, with sharp commentary on the pictures, the players, the money and the spectacle. by Tyler Coates
Considerations: Anora, Acting Frontrunners and Other Post-Weekend Fallout
Mark Eydelshteyn and Mikey Madison in Anora Every Tuesday Tyler Coates publishes his new Filmmaker newsletter, Considerations, devoted to the awards race. To receive it early and in your in-box, subscribe here.
While this Sunday was the Super Bowl (and, because I’m always rooting for Bradley Cooper, I’m thrilled the Eagles won), Saturday was just as important for the awards race.
If you had asked me on Saturday what would win best picture—and many people hounded me for an answer—my reply would have been: “I don’t know!!!” Hours before both the Directors Guild Awards and the Producers Guild Awards, NEON hosted a toast to Anoraand Sean Baker (up for four Oscars, including best picture, director, original screenplay and editing). I have been rooting for Baker and Anora but had no real expectations he would pick up both DGA and PGA Awards, the latter shared with his fellow producers Samantha Quan and Alex Coco. And yet when news that the film had picked up both awards within 90 minutes (with Baker impressively making it to the PGAs just in time) traveled via Twitter and texts from fellow pundits, it seemed like, months into the Oscar season, we finally had a real frontrunner. The bonus: Anora’s win for best film at the Critics Choice Awards on Friday night, decided by non-Academy members but which still serves as a boost to its chances when Oscar voting opens this week.
Anora’s breakthrough is impressive, but the race isn’t over yet—and it still has solid competition in films like A24’s The Brutalist, Searchlight’s A Complete Unknown, Focus Features’ Conclave and Universal’s Wicked. But I think it’s worth looking at the big categories I feel comfortable predicting at this point.
Let’s start with Emilia Pérez, the film no one can stop talking about for better or worse. I think it’s still going to win the only two categories in which it was ever a real contender: best supporting actress for Zoe Saldaña and best original song. For the former, Saldaña has always been the frontrunner, and I don’t think any Academy members are looking to discredit her performance because of co-star Karla Sofía Gascón’s public flameout. Similarly, I think “El Mal”—Saldaña’s character’s signature number—will win best song. While Emilia was once also seen a frontrunner for best international feature, Walter Salles’ I’m Not Here (also nominated for best picture and best actress) now feels more likely to take the prize.
Beyond Saldaña, I see Demi Moore easily winning best actress for The Substance (a feat I suggested she could pull back in November). Hers is typically the most competitive category, and she has put in the work on the campaign trail, not just with appearances on TV and online (her appearance on Hot Ones is pretty aspirational; I wish I were as zen in stressful situations) but also meeting Academy voters in person. The Brutalist’s Adrien Brody has done the same, which may give him the advantage over A Complete Unknown’s Timothée Chalamet; the latter may have hosted SNL ( performing obscure Bob Dylan songs as the episode’s musical guest, which didn’t exactly burnish his performance in the film) but the former is working the rooms in Hollywood and posing with animals rescued from the Altadena fires. Best actor might still be a tight race between the two, but best supporting actor is A Real Pain’s Kieran Culkin’s award to lose.
Sean Baker is up for four individual Oscars—in addition to producing and directing Anora, he also wrote and edited it and is nominated for all of those duties. We still have to wait for the Writer’s Guild Awards to take place on Feb. 15 to indicate how the writers will vote, while the American Cinema Editors’ Eddie Awards have been rescheduled due to the fires until after the Oscars, with the ceremony taking place March 15; whoever wins the Oscar will surely do similarly well two weeks later.
Anora’s big wins this weekend certainly dampened the spirits of the folks working on The Brutalist’s campaign, but I still think Brady Corbet’s epic could win some big prizes beyond best actor. Challengers’ snub in the original score category was a big boon for Brutalistcomposer Daniel Blumberg and his bum-buh-bah-bummmms, easily the most memorable film score of those chosen. Similarly, production designer Judy Becker essentially is László Tóth, and cinematographer Lol Crawley is responsible for some of the most striking images of the year. And while a lot of people I spoke with this weekend this Carolie Fargeat could win best original screenplay for The Substance, I think Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold are still fierce competitors—if Corbet loses best director to Sean Baker, the consolation prize (as I’ve written before) could be a screenplay win.
And look, there must be surprises still in store—although like Conclave’s final out-of-nowhere twist, screenwriter Peter Straughan is most certain to win best adapted screenplay for the papal thriller. The Feb. 16 BAFTAs ceremony could throw some more wrenches into the machine and have me second-guessing everything I’ve just written. The Feb. 23 SAG Awards ceremony will also help solidify the four performers we can expect to pose with statuettes on Oscar night. In the meantime, those of us in Los Angeles are having our own little conclave, asking as many Academy voters as we can to figure out how the group will select its winners en masse.
One producer told me this weekend that, while he’s still undecided how he’s voting over all, he already has his pick for best actor: Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice. The reason? Because Donald Trump will lose his mind if Stan wins (and not because his performance in A Different Man, in my opinion, was more deserving). That bit of Hollywood political resistance proves that there’s always someone bucking the trends pundits have tried to establish.
