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Considerations
Covering the annual film industry awards races, with sharp commentary on the pictures, the players, the money and the spectacle. by Tyler Coates
Considerations: Some Final Predictions
The Brutalist Every Tuesday Tyler Coates publishes his new Filmmaker newsletter, Considerations, devoted to the awards race. To receive it early and in your in-box, subscribe here.
This is my final Considerations of the season—a somewhat bittersweet statement to write. It’s been a lot of fun covering this wacky and wild Oscar season, even as I (along with so many other folks I’ve spoken to over the last few weeks) am also extremely ready for it to be done. But with voting closing on Feb. 18, we’ve basically reached the end of the line for campaigning.
And what a season, one that certainly tested everyone’s definition of what an “Oscar movie” could (and should) be. If you had asked me back in September or October, I would have expected Steve McQueen’s Blitz to be a major contender and laughed at the suggestion that a French-produced body horror film in which a fully grown Margaret Qualley climbs out of Demi Moore’s back could nab a best picture nomination. But by now the early fall—a time when I was told Civil War was a “big priority” for A24 and Amazon/MGM would definitely make a best picture push for Challengers—feels like years ago, and I’ll have to simply look forward to those films’ episodes of This Had Oscar Buzz.
Back then, I was nervous about the possible trajectory for Nickel Boys (a friend and I were keeping track of the pundits who dismissed its chances early), only to see it nominated for best picture and adapted screenplay (although its snubs for cinematography and editing are galling). The Apprentice was caught up in distribution hell, unlikely to be seen by audiences much less get Oscar attention, but still earned a pair of nods for actors Sebastian Stan and Jeremy Strong. Emilia Pérez was the de facto international frontrunner, then I’m Still Here came along, giving Emilia a run for her money (although I’m Still Here earned an impressive three noms, including one for best picture, Emilia Pérezstill claimed victory with 13 nods). Similarly, The Wild Robot had the animation category in a lock—then Flow came roaring in like the flood that sees its main character, an unnamed black cat, forced to adapt to a new world.
This is what’s fun (and also maddening) about following the awards race: It’s impossible to predict what’s going to happen over the course of a season—a years-old offensive tweet or surprising international contender could sideline all expectations.
Now, weeks away from the March 2nd Oscar ceremony, one might assume it’s settled. The ballots have been cast, and the precursor awards have given us all insight into what to expect from the Academy. And yes, there are sure things—I can’t imagine A Real Pain’s Kieran Culkin and Emilia Pérez’s Zoe Saldaña not winning for supporting actor and actress, respectively—but tight races (and a little superstition) will keep anyone from resting easy quite yet.
Let’s look at Anora, which earned six nominations. It picked up the top prize at the DGA, PGA and Critics Choice Awards, plus earned writer-director Sean Baker the WGA Award for best screenplay (where fellow Oscar-nominated scripts The Brutalist and The Substance were passed over). Only three Palme d’Or winners have also claimed the Oscar for best picture, but Anora is a surefire crowd pleaser and its laurels give it an edge over other populist picks in A Complete Unknown and Conclave. And Mikey Madison won the BAFTA for best actress last weekend (Emma Stone did the same last year weeks before beating the season’s favorite Lily Gladstone for the prize), which makes Demi Moore’s chances slightly more uncertain.
While I don’t see The Brutalist taking best picture, it could take a few awards. Given Brady Corbet’s BAFTA win for best director, it really does feel like a two-way race between him and Sean Baker for the respective Oscar category, while both Baker and Corbet have tough competition in Coralie Fargeat for original screenplay. Adrien Brody seems likely to win his second best actor Oscar (Nikki Glaser’s Golden Globes monologue joke about Brody being a “two-time Holocaust survivor” has been on a loop in my head), and the film seems like a strong bet for cinematography and original score. I’m particularly interested in production designer Judy Becker’s chances considering the massive work she did to make a fictional architect’s designs feel so real, but she was passed over at the Art Directors Guild Awards, who rewarded Nosferatu in the period film category.
Can I predict any other titles to take multiple Oscars? Along with supporting actress, Emilia Pérez will probably win best original song for “El Mal,” but I think Brazil will claim victory with I’m Still Here in the international feature category—and not just because of the Karla Sofía Gascón scandal; Walter Salles’ drama about resistance against dictatorship only gets more timely for American audiences every day. The Substance could peak with three wins should Fargeat and Moore claim victory, but it is certainly a frontrunner for makeup and hairstyling. There’s also Dune: Part Two, which could follow its predecessor in winning the awards for sound and visual effects—although the Visual Effects Society gave its top prize to Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (while Dune still earned four additional awards).
Before I sign off, I want to throw out more love for the films who didn’t make it to the final round, as it were. Annie Baker’s Janet Planet won my heart last year, as did its star Julianne Nicholson. Josh Margolin’s Thelma was a wild romp, which saw previous Oscar nominee June Squibb earn her first leading role at the age of 94 (she also shared incredible onscreen chemistry with co-stars Fred Hechinger and the late Richard Roundtree). I will absolutely be the guy who bemoans the fact that Sebastian Stan was nominated for the wrong film; I think he’s great in The Apprentice, but it was his performance in A Different Man that blew me away. How fun would it have been to see the legendary Carol Kane honored for her hilarious turn in the wacky and shaggy Between the Temples? And if you ever get the unlikely chance to see The Piano Lesson in a theater, please do; Danielle Deadwyler is mesmerizing in the August Wilson adaptation, which also looks and sounds incredible when projected on a big screen with big speakers. I must thank Netflix for ironically insisting I see their contenders in their screening rooms.
