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Considerations
Covering the annual film industry awards races, with sharp commentary on the pictures, the players, the money and the spectacle. by Tyler Coates
Considerations: The Best Picture Shortlist
Brían F. O’Byrne and Ralph Fiennes in Conclave Every Tuesday Tyler Coates publishes his new Filmmaker newsletter, Considerations, devoted to the awards race. To receive it early and in your in-box, subscribe here.
It’s my last dispatch of the year—I’ll be back with another newsletter the first full week of January—as the Oscar campaigning unofficially pauses for the holidays. The last major awards event of the year will take place on Dec. 17, when the Academy announces the shortlists for 10 categories: documentary feature, international feature, animated short, documentary short, live-action short, original score, original song, makeup/hairstyling, sound and visual effects. Then, the Golden Globes on Jan. 5 kicks off a week of nomination announcements, with the PGA and SAG Award noms providing what films Academy voters in two well-represented groups (producers and actors) will be rooting for.
Until then, it’s worth looking at where we are in the best picture race. While lots of groups whose voters do not overlap with the Academy have started to announce their winners and nominees for their respective awards, it’s time we can cull the list of the dozens of films that could be nominated for best picture into a more manageable list of 15 that are the strongest contenders of the season. Among these are movies I think have their nominations in a lock; others are on the cusp, or simply underdogs whose momentum could change at any moment.
The Oscar noms won’t be revealed until Jan. 17, and a lot can happen in a month. Here are the key players I think remain the semifinalists of the season, with my own analysis of their strengths (and, for some, weaknesses).
All We Imagine as Light
Despite its Grand Prix win at Cannes, Payal Kapadia’s sobering drama about two Malayali nurses sharing an apartment in Mumbai was not selected by India to represent the country for the best international feature Oscar. Since that decision, the film has been named by the National Board of Review to be one of the top five international features of the year, while critics groups in Los Angeles and New York awarded it their awards for best international film. Ii was also nominated for the same prize at the Golden Globes, where Kapadia also earned an unexpected nom for best director. If Academy voters find themselves taken with the film, the best picture category could be where it lands a nom.
Anora
Sean Baker’s eighth feature—a screwball comedy about a Brooklyn sex worker (Mikey Madison) who is swept up in a whirlwind romance with the son of a Russian oligarch—became an Oscar frontrunner when it won the Palme d’Or at Cannes (the fifth consecutive NEON release to do so beginning with best picture winner Parasite in 2019). Named a top film of the year by the AFI and National Board of Review, plus the winner of the Los Angeles Film Critics Association’s award for best film and lead performance, I can’t imagine a scenario in which Anora doesn’t get a best picture nom. Baker, meanwhile, is a quadruple threat: He’s eligible for nominations as the film’s producer, director, writer and editor.
Blitz
When I first saw Blitz in September, I immediately thought it would be a strong player in the best picture race. Written and directed by Steve McQueen, a previous best picture winner for producing 12 Years a Slave (he lost best director to Gravity’s Alfonso Cuarón), it’s a classic World War II epic with newcomer Elliott Heffernan playing a young boy seeking to reunite with his mother (Saoirse Ronan) amid Germany’s relentless bombing of London. But the film has failed to pick up honors from critics groups and was snubbed entirely at the Golden Globes; its sole honor so far has been a Critics Choice nom for Heffernan for best young actor. While just as brutal as McQueen’s previous films, the meandering, Dickensian plot may feel too old-fashioned compared to the more narratively daring films in this year’s race.
The Brutalist
Brady Corbet won the Silver Lion for best director at Venice—the first of a slew of honors his ambitious three-and-a-half-hour post-war epic has received since its Venice premiere. While A24 isn’t releasing the movie until Christmas, the studio has been screening the film in Los Angeles and New York on 70mm in all its VistaVision glory. With Oscar winner Adrien Brody primed to earn another nom for playing an artist who survived the Holocaust (this time, instead of a pianist, he’s an architect), the film will appeal to the most film-obsessed cinephiles and normies within the Academy. A best picture nom is a given, but voters have shown in recent years that anything beyond the three-hour mark might be doing too much.
Challengers
Of director Luca Guadanigno and screenwriter Justin Kuritzkes’s two features (the duo also have Queer), Challengers seems more likely to nab a spot in the best picture lineup. The twisty and provocative love triangle drama set within the world of competitive tennis is one of the year’s most talked-about films, launching endless memes for its melodramatic storyline, homoerotic undertones and propulsive score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. While the musical duo have a good shot at another Oscar nom and Kuritzkes could score his first for original screenplay, the film hasn’t picked up any major honors beyond Zendaya’s Golden Globe nom for best actress in a comedy (odd genre designation, don’t we agree?). It is one of the darkest horses in the competition.
A Complete Unknown
I have to admit I still haven’t seen James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet as the singer-songwriter. Despite receiving mixed reviews, the film landed spots on the AFI and National Board of Review’s top 10 film lists (the latter also named Elle Fanning its best supporting actress); it also earned Critics Choice and Golden Globe noms for best picture, actor (Chalamet) and supporting actor (Edward Norton, as Dylan mentor Pete Seeger). But the Academy loves a musical biopic, with the last decade boasting best picture nominees Bohemian Rhapsody, Elvis and Maestro. Considering the cross-generational and global appeal of its subject (Dylan did win a Nobel Prize, after all) and the feel-good homeyness of a nostalgia-packed period piece, I think A Complete Unknown has a decent shot for the final 10.
Conclave
Robert Harris’ pulpy suspense novel (not to be confused with the other bestselling Harris: Thomas, whose The Silence of the Lambs inspired the best picture-winning horror classic) gets the prestige treatment thanks to an ensemble of Very Serious Actors elevating the material to histrionic heights. Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow and Isabella Rossellini are among the players in this procedural look behind the scenes of a contentious papal election. There’s a lot of doublecrossing, clandestine secrets and an out-of-nowhere final twist to be revealed before white smoke appears above the Vatican. Under Edward Berger’s impeccable direction, the film has been a hit with critics and moviegoers—I expect the Academy to reward it handsomely with multiple noms including best picture.
Dune: Part Two
The first part of Denis Villeneuve’s epic adaptation of Frank Herbert’s sci-fi classic landed 10 Oscar nominations in 2022, including best picture; the film eventually won six of those Oscars, largely in the crafts categories: cinematography, editing, original score, production design, sound and visual effects—categories in which I expect the second part of the franchise will similarly gain notice (and also appeal to those voters as they cast their choices for best picture). The second film also nearly doubled the first’s worldwide grosses, which always lands well with voters in the producers branch (who probably care the most about box office numbers). The only thing I can say working against Dune: Part Two is its February release date; the first hit theaters mid-September, and was no doubt more fresh in voters’ minds than its sequel might currently be.
Emilia Pérez
I can’t name a more divisive film this season. Everyone I know seems to be split down the middle when it comes to Jacques Audiard’s crime drama movie musical about a Mexican drug lord’s transition to a woman—which leads to her ultimate redemption—that is also France’s submission for international feature. But Netflix’s main best picture competitor has earned an impressive 10 Critics Choice and Golden Globe Award noms and swept the European Film Awards with five wins; the AFI also selected it as one of its top films of the year, a rarity for an international production. With such a crowded field of contenders, I am hesitant to say this Emilia Pérez is an inevitable nominee. The folks at Netflix will simply have to hope that the math will be on their side.
Gladiator II
On the one hand, it’s a box office hit that brought fans of the original film back to theaters (which worked in the favor of the last decade’s Oscar-nominated sequels in Avatar: The Way of Water, Mad Max: Fury Road and Top Gun: Maverick). It may also spark the Academy to embrace director four-time Oscar nominee Ridley Scott once again with open arms—it may definitely score two-time winner Denzel Washington another supporting actor nod for his scenery chewing performance as a crooked political player in Rome. But despite its anticipation as an Oscar frontrunner, the sequel to the 2001 best picture winner didn’t land as well with critics—among this lot of 15 films, it has the lowest Rotten Tomatoes score. I’m not sure if it’ll have the muscle to break into the competition, but it could be the surprise underdog.
Nickel Boys
I was initially worried about Nickel Boys this season, partially because many of my fellow awards pundits didn’t seem to be as taken with RaMell Ross’s adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel as I was. Starring Ethan Henrisse and Brandon Taylor in the title roles, Ross’s heartbreaking—yet ultimately hopeful—drama was ambitiously shot from a point-of-view perspective by DP Jomo Fray. But even before its Christmas theatrical debut, Nickel Boys has been named a top film of the year by the AFI; earned best picture noms at the Critics Choice, Film Independent Spirit and Golden Globes Awards; and won best cinematography awards from critics in L.A. and New York. Ross was also a best director winner with critics groups in Chicago and New York. Needless to say, I’m feeling much more confident about the film’s best picture chances.
A Real Pain
Every year there’s room for a short, sweet, wry indie comedy in the best picture race, and it seems like writer-director Jesse Eisenberg’s two-hander—which stars Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin as mismatched cousins reuniting on a Holocaust tour of Poland to discover the childhood home of their recently deceased grandmother—will fill that spot. Both the AFI and the National Board of Review named A Real Pain among their top ten films of the year, and it earned a Golden Globes nom for best picture (musical/comedy). Meanwhile, Culkin is one of the stronger supporting actor contenders this season: he’s won that respective prize from the National Board of Review and the New York FIlm Critics Circle, plus Critics Choice, Golden Globe, Gotham and Indie Spirit Award nods.
September 5
In a testament to the power of awards prognostication, this thriller that follows ABC Sports’ live TV coverage of the hostage crisis at the 1972 Munich Olympics entered the Oscar conversation when THR’s Scott Feinberg (my former colleague) named it his number-one pick in the best picture race as early as September; the film, having only screened at Telluride and Venice at that point, was absent from his fellow pundits’ lists of frontrunners. Sure, it entered the conversation because our peers thought Feinberg’s wild card was a ridiculous longshot, but it still got people talking (and Paramount, its distributor, hastily scheduled four back-to-back screenings on a Saturday in L.A.—that Saturday was, awkwardly, also Yom Kippur). Given the war in Gaza, September 5 may seem politically relevant. But rather than focusing on international politics, the film is a journalistic procedural, more Spotlight than Munich. So far, its biggest honor is a Golden Globe nod for best picture, drama; beyond picking up accolades for its editing, September 5 will have to gain more notice to break into the final 10.
Sing Sing
A true sleeper hit, Greg Kwedar’s drama—starring Colman Domingo as a member of a group of incarcerated men participating in the Rehabilitation Through the Arts theater program at the eponymous New York prison—first premiered at the 2023 Toronto International Film Festival before an acclaimed theatrical run late summer 2024. The film picked up a post-Thanksgiving boost after Domingo and co-star Clarence Maclin (a real RTA alum who plays himself in the film) earned best lead and supporting performance at the Gotham Awards. That momentum has grown, with AFI and National Board of Review including the film in their top 10 lists (NBR also named it best adapted screenplay) and the film scoring Critics Choice Award noms for best picture, actor and supporting actor. With the actors branch making up the largest voting body, this tear-jerking tribute to the transformational experience of performing will no doubt win over a ton of Academy members.
Wicked
I was as skeptical as they come about director Jon M. Chu’s plan to turn the three-hour Broadway musical—a prequel to The Wizard of Oz—into two film adaptations, the first of which clocks in at two hours and 40 minutes. But the gamble worked out, both critically and commercially (in a boon to the producers among Academy voters, the film has already made nearly over half a billion dollars worldwide).It has also propelled stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande as tough competition in the lead and supporting actress race, respectively. The film has scored 11 Critics Choice and four Golden Globe Award noms, and has been named a top film of the year by the AFI and the National Board of Review (the latter also selected Chu as its best director). With its crowd pleasing spectacle, devoted fan base and timely anti-fascist themes, it’s no doubt the populist pick of the best picture hopefuls—and it has its nom in a lock.
