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Considerations
Covering the annual film industry awards races, with sharp commentary on the pictures, the players, the money and the spectacle. by Tyler Coates
Considerations: Phase 2 Begins
Demi Moore in The Substance Every Tuesday Tyler Coates publishes his new Filmmaker newsletter, Considerations, devoted to the awards race. To receive it early and in your in-box, subscribe here.
It rained in Los Angeles this weekend, and the way the phrase “we needed this” became a meme felt like a collective awkward laugh followed by a sigh of relief. For the past few weeks almost everyone has been on edge, many mourning massive losses from the fires in the Palisades and Altadena. Wind advisories meant our go-backs were still packed, phones facing up in case of Watch Duty notifications. (Oh, and a lot of stuff has been happening in Washington?)
The winds died down just in time for last Thursday’s Oscar nominations. That the announcement landed the same day many in Hollywood were en route to Park City for this year’s Sundance Film Festival was proof that we’re back to normal—at least somewhat.
And this year’s Oscar noms ushered in some of that normalcy, in the sense that there were plenty of surprises (good and not) that leaves the race completely wide open. I texted with other journalists and none of us seem to have a consensus on the acting winners, much less best picture. At least two publicists I know expressed relief regarding their films’ successes. After last year’s Oppenheimer sweep, it feels like a dramatic shift—and this season’s unpredictability has made the Oscars pretty fun again.
First, I’ll own up to what I got wrong with my predictions. For best picture, I missed I’m Still Here and The Substance in favor of A Real Pain and Sing Sing; I have repeatedly said that the non-American voters are proving more influential over the Academy’s outcomes, and I think that certainly helped I’m Still Here (also nominated for best international feature and best actress). In regard to The Substance, I have to call out the folks at MUBI, who really turned that into a bonafide hit. To think: A streamer released a film theatrically, it made a bunch of money and then beat the odds to become an absolutely disgusting body horror film with a best picture nomination. And, after I predicted an all-male best director lineup, it’s a relief that Coralie Fargeat made her way in.
Meanwhile, I really thought Sing Sing could be the kind of sleeper that made its way to best picture victory thanks to support from the actors branch, but then I remember how it’s still broadly unavailable beyond the Academy streaming app, and the few FYC events featuring the cast began rather late in the season. And A Real Pain, while one of my favorite movies last year, seems rather small compared to the more epic-sized films in the competition.
I don’t really believe in snubs when it comes to acting nominations—to me, it’s all a numbers game, and there are a lot of really great performances in each category but only five can receive recognition. In fact, I can’t name a single performer who I don’t think deserves their nomination. But I am disappointed that Marianne Jean-Baptiste’s transformative performance in Hard Truths didn’t earn her a best actress nod, and I feel similarly about The Piano Lesson’s Danielle Deadwyler and Nickel Boys’ Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor. I was hoping Clarence Maclin would earn a best supporting actor nod for Sing Sing, but his nomination for best adapted screenplay is a consolation.
The most perplexing absences came in below-the-line categories. I really thought Jomo Fray would win best cinematography for his work on Nickel Boys, but he was shut out in favor of more seasoned DPs. (Here I will quote something I underlined in Ta-Nehisi Coates’ The Message, which I read this weekend: “I do not believe that this is a conspiracy. But more important, I do not think it is a coincidence.”) And I cannot think of a film soundtrack that made a bigger mark last year than Challengers, so Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross not being nominated for best original score is very bizarre.
But no need to harp on the Academy’s supposed mistakes. It’s time to look forward to a Phase 2 that is full of weird vibes. Precisely because the Oscars are not the most important thing in the world right now, everyone is suddenly timid about how to move forward. There will be no nominees luncheon, and the award shows leading up to the main event may feel less extravagant. Who will be the one who could kick campaigning in motion? Anybody? I expect a rather muted few weeks ahead of the March 2 ceremony, which makes me wonder: What could possibly happen that might sway voters’ minds one way or the other?
