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Industry Beat
by Anthony Kaufman
Hits & Misses: The Sundance Class of 2025
Han Gi-Chan, Youn Yuh-Jung and Kelly Marie Tran in The Wedding Banquet By conventional measures, the 2020s have not been very good for the movies. At mid-decade, there’s the nagging sense that the pre-COVID years represented glory days that will never be recaptured. Corporate media consolidation, the dominance of streaming and short-form content and the rapid rise of A.I. have far-reaching implications for the future of the medium. In many ways, independent film and filmmakers are in a far more perilous position than ever, increasingly squeezed out on screens big and small by an algorithmically driven and politically pressured media ecosystem irrevocably moving toward the middlebrow, mediocre and mainstream.
Yet, independent filmmakers, producers and the distributors that acquire and release their work are still very much in the game. Sundance 2025 was lambasted as “slow” and an “extinction event,” and breakout films were few and far between, but industry veterans and emerging talents alike are committed to the cause despite the odds being stacked against them.
It’s rolling the dice, admits Alex Orlovsky, an producer on Sundance 2025 film Sorry, Baby and producer on Lurker. “It’s like, some people are professional gamblers—you can be better at gambling than other people and make a living at it,” he says. “But it’s also about the bigger picture of having an ongoing relationship with filmmakers you trust and having some other pieces in place to add to a point where the risk is justified.”
Another industry insider echoes the sentiment. “Anyone who believes it’s a sustainable model to bring a film to Sundance and expect it to sell for a profit is kidding themselves. But there is value in taking calculated risks on new filmmaking talent and betting on their early work as an investment in a longer-term relationship that can grow into decades of collaboration on the more commercial work.”
Such long-term investments take some time to gauge, though now might be the right moment to acknowledge that five of this year’s top-grossing hits—A Minecraft Movie, Lilo & Stitch, Superman, Jurassic World: Rebirth and Sinners—were all directed by filmmakers whose careers were launched at Sundance or in the low budget sector (respectively, Napoleon Dynamite’s Jared Hess, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On’s Dean Fleischer Camp, Troma vet James Gunn, Monsters’ Gareth Edwards and Fruitvale Station’s Ryan Coogler.)
In the shorter term, let’s take a closer look at the films that came out of this year’s Sundance. Per tradition, Filmmaker often gauges the state of the indie marketplace through the 10 movies launched out of Sundance’s Dramatic Competition slate—what happened to these films after they premiered, and where did they go?
Unfortunately, this year there was only one breakout, and a modest one at that: Eva Victor’s Sorry, Baby, which was acquired by A24 in a multimillion-dollar deal and earned more than $2 million in domestic ticket sales (see below). Only two other films made deals with legacy distributors. In April, queer comedy Twinless was jointly acquired by Roadside Attractions, Lionsgate and Sony Pictures Worldwide (and earned $1.26 million during its U.S. fall release), and Carmen Emmi’s queer dramatic thriller Plainclothes was purchased by Magnolia Pictures (and made just $140,000 domestically). So, are we talking only about a 10- to 20-percent success rate? Eesh.
Smaller distributors eventually came aboard a few more films: Greenwich Entertainment released Love, Brooklyn (making more than $250,000), and Omaha (forthcoming), while Vertical announced a deal for surprise Grand Jury Prize winner Atropia (releasing in December 2025). A new distribution nonprofit called The Future of Film Is Female obtained the well-reviewed Sunfish (& Other Stories on Green Lake), which had a micro-release in the fall, but remaining films Bubble & Squeak, Bunnylovr and Ricky were never even acquired.
Before you lament, it was a slightly different story outside the Competition section. There were, in fact, a slew of deals, including NEON’s acquisition of horror hit Together (see below), Apple TV’s Come See Me in the Good Light, Magnolia’s purchase of Premiere docs FOLKTALES and It’s Never Over, Jeff Buckley, Roadside Attractions’ Kiss of the Spider Woman, MUBI’s Lurker, Sony Pictures Classics’ Oh, Hi!, Sideshow’s Peter Hujar’s Day, Bleecker Street’s Rebuilding and Netflix’s Train Dreams.
Netflix also acquired acclaimed competition documentary The Perfect Neighbor, which was the second-most-watched movie on the streamer in its first weekend, with a staggering 16.7 million views and will likely be one of the best-performing feature docs on the platform ever. While the majority of deals or releases may not have been as significant, you can’t say Sundance wasn’t a busy bazaar for filling up distributors’ pipelines.
“That’s definitely a market,” says Tango Entertainment’s Lia Buman, an executive producer on Sorry, Baby and Together, who says the company’s Sundance deals exceeded expectations. Acknowledging that “everything is under duress,” Buman nonetheless cites new distributors coming into the marketplace and more targeted acquisitions that could lead to more positive change for the independent film sector overall.
“Maybe streamers aren’t buying independent films as much as we would want them to, but the percentage of what they are buying is doing better,” adds Buman. “Maybe that will lead to a different strategy of buying films.”
Micah Green, co-president and CEO of financier 30WEST, which also invested in Together, believes that truly indie filmmakers may be the best suited to survive the mediapocalypse. “I’m most excited about the lower-budget paradigm,” he says. “The potential upside for filmmakers creating audacious work on tiny budgets can be enormous—both in terms of profit and cultural impact. When you’re making a microbudget project, whether in the five-figure range or low six
figures, you’re liberated from the conventional production rules that hamstring established studios. At this level, filmmakers can—and should—make bold films that stand well apart from what the establishment is producing.”
Green continues, “Today, a filmmaker who has created something truly exceptional can leverage social platforms to build an audience and create verifiable anticipation for the work before it even premieres at a festival.” However, that hasn’t exactly translated to major box-office breakouts. Indeed, if ticket sales and revenue numbers aren’t hitting distributors’ targets, might that start to impact the small number of films being bought at pricetags that have satisfied producers and financiers?
Given the low-to-mid box office for the best-reviewed films out of Sundance, Duncan Montgomery, co-founder of High Frequency Entertainment, which produced and financed Sorry, Baby and Lurker (see below), is scratching his head. “Does theatrical success need to be rethought? What does it take in this day and age to get people into theaters for ‘indie dramas’?” he asks. “I think the films did well overall, but I was a little surprised at the expectations of the distributors and the level of the theatrical releases that the films were promised.”
Montgomery doesn’t expect to shift his business strategy. While he’s planning to do some bigger movies for hire with the studios to ensure revenue, he says High Frequency’s not leaving the $2 to $3 million movie financed through equity and tax credits. “The bullseye is very small, but there’s still a real appetite among buyers for these films,” he says. “They’re valuable, but it’s hard.”
On the distribution side, Tyler DiNapoli, president and chief marketing officer at Bleecker Street, says the company is staying devoted to the theatrical space because there are always surprise hits to be found. “But, we have to pay attention to what the market is telling us,” he admits. To stay viable, Bleecker is diversifying into the event-film business with a new division called Crosswalk, aimed at the Taylor Swift concert films of the world—which, if you’re counting, probably qualifies as one of the year’s most successful indie releases. “If we have these other steady sources,” says DiNapoli, “this allows us to take bets on other [independent] movies.”
As the wagering continues, let’s consider six case studies from Sundance 2025 (in order of release date) to see what paid off, broke even or still has its cards on the table.
The Wedding Banquet
Release dates: April 18 (theaters), May 13 (TVOD), September 8 (SVOD, Paramount+)
Budget: Mid seven figures
U.S. box office: $2,090,228
Widest release: 1,142 theaters
Financing & Production
In an age when recognizable IP is king, why not apply that same strategy to indie movies? In 2019, producer-financier Anita Gou of Kindred Spirit reaches out to James Schamus’s Symbolic Exchange about remaking his and Ang Lee’s 1993 indie darling The Wedding Banquet, about a gay man who agrees to marry a female friend to appease his conservative parents. According to Symbolic Exchange head of production Joe Pirro, they recommend director Andrew Ahn, whose second film Driveways they had recently produced, to tackle the remake. In spring 2019, Kindred Spirit supports the development of the script, but the pandemic derails the project.
After Ahn’s successful Hulu film Fire Island, the producers again take out the film to companies. “The world was hungry for a reassuring, warm hug of a movie,” says Pirro, who notes Bleecker Street Media was among the first to show active interest.
With cast commitments from Bowen Yang and Lily Gladstone (who was a fan of Driveways and was heading for her Killers of the Flower Moon Oscar nomination), the film is financed in a negative pickup deal via Bleeker and ShivHans Pictures for U.S. rights, with Universal taking international rights. Because of Yang’s commitments to Saturday Night Live, the production has a fairly tight window to shoot during summer 2024. “Given the uncertainty and volatility of the marketplace,” notes Pirro, “the comfort in knowing we had distribution removed a burden and allowed us to focus on creating the infrastructure for Andrew and his team to do their best work.”
Sales & Distribution
With those distribution deals already in place, The Wedding Banquet plays in Sundance’s Premieres section on Monday after the festival’s busy first weekend. Reactions are lukewarm, with The Hollywood Reporter calling it “funny and poignant in equal measure,” but noting that “the comedy of manners does sag here and there.” According to Bleecker Street’s DiNapoli, Sundance is a great launching pad. “We wanted to take the film to an environment where people would understand the background of the first film while getting the cultural relevance of what we were trying to do with the new one. They totally did, and because it had a commercial sensibility, it really stood out this year in a positive way.”
But the theatrical release is trickier. The film goes out wide over the family-friendly Easter weekend in April, with choice pull quotes like “crowd-pleaser!” and “irresistibly sweet!” sprinkled across the amiable trailer and a colorful poster campaign evoking Crazy Rich Asians and The Farewell, the latter also produced by Gou. Across 1,142 screens, the film earns just $918,598 for a per-theater opening of $804. Although audience responses are positive on the coasts, the film doesn’t cross over, staying within the limits of the art-house audience.
Internationally, despite strong film festival showings in London, Taiwan and South Korea (home to one of the stars, Han Gi-chan), excitement doesn’t translate to the international box-office, either, where the film earns another $359,844. According to Pirro, global ticket sales are comparable to the U.S. release, but there still are a number of key territories where the film has yet to be released, including Japan. A stark reminder of how much has changed in art-house moviegoing today versus 1993: Ang Lee’s original film earned almost $24 million worldwide on a budget of only around $1 million.
Recoupments
Most likely, Bleecker, ShivHans and Universal will need to find a path to recoupment in the film’s digital release, which so far is steady but not stellar, about commensurate with the theatrical sales. But Pirro remains confident the film has a long life. “On the indie front, it’s hard to define success by a movie in its initial release,” he says, “but seeing the slow rollout of the movie across North America and the world, it’s been fortifying to see the film find its audience, and I think it will continue to.” Symbolic Exchange is also in talks with Ahn to make a third movie together. “I felt fortunate that we were set at Sundance with global distribution in place,” concludes Pirro. “There are not a lot of films that I would finance these days and try to sell at Sundance.”
Sorry, Baby
Release dates: June 27 (theatrical), October 30 (SVOD, HBO Max)
Budget: Low to mid seven figures
U.S. box office: $2,418,280
Widest release: 338 theaters
Financing & Production
In 2019, Eva Victor is making comedic viral videos, such as the web series Eva vs. Anxiety, which catch the attention of Barry Jenkins. He follows Victor on Instagram and DMs the actor-director, asking them if they have a feature script they might want to send to Jenkins’ production company Pastel. In 2021, Victor finishes the screenplay, a dark comedy about a woman grappling with a past sexual assault, but Victor doesn’t feel quite ready to direct. So, they spend five months creating shot lists and storyboarding and, in 2022, shadow director Jane Schoenbrun for part of the prep and production of I Saw the TV Glow. Meanwhile, to raise financing, Pastel’s Adele Romanski goes out to producer-financiers such as Tango Entertainment, High Frequency Entertainment, and Big Beach.
Even though Victor is an unproven talent, High Frequency’s Duncan Montgomery says, “It was one of the best scripts I’ve ever read, and when Eva pitched the film to us it matched the sensibility of the script that I was enamored with perfectly. It certainly didn’t hurt that Barry Jenkins and Adele Romanski were shepherding it.” Adds Tango Entertainment’s Lia Buman, “The budget was very smart,”
By March 2024, production is set, and Victor shoots the movie in Massachusetts over 24 days. Post-production takes place at the same facility where Jenkins is cutting Mufasa, which allows him to advise Victor through the editing process.
Sales & Distribution
After the film’s Sundance premiere on Monday, January 27, a fairly tepid market suddenly shifts into high gear, with trade headlines declaring “Sure to Be One of the Year’s Most Talked About Debuts” (Variety) and “A Star Is Born, And So Is a Born Filmmaker” (Deadline). Cue the bidding war, with NEON and MUBI reportedly in the mix, and A24 clinching the world rights for a price tag “near $8 million,” according to Variety.
Rather than go out big over the summer, A24 turns to the traditional method of platform releasing, relying on word-of-mouth with a four-theater opening, yielding an impressive $21,623 per-screen average. According to A24, the marketing focuses mostly on Victor’s sharp comic sensibility and highlights the film’s delicate balance between humor and pain. The company uses a mix of viral clips playing to Victor’s already established online following (now slightly over 100K on Instagram) that are intended to be an organic extension of their voice. The company also places clips with consumer press outlets that highlight not only Victor but the supporting cast and—perhaps just as important—the protagonist’s cat. Several early profiles in major press outlets, such as The New Yorker, also help define the tone of the film and introduce Victor as “a new voice of millennial sincerity.”
In the United States, the theatrical rollout is strongest in New York, L.A. and Chicago and holds remarkably well in those markets. Strong reviews—a 97 percent on Rotten Tomatoes—buoy the film to a $1.6 million gross in a fifth-week expansion across 338 screens. Internationally, the film is also modestly successful in the U.K. and Australia, where it earns another few hundred thousand dollars in ticket sales. Total international grosses reach $896,664.
Recoupments
For a film with so much critical goodwill, strong buzz and the backing of A24, one would expect this year’s “Sundance standout” to have earned more than its $2.3 million at the U.S. box office. But the film exceeded A24’s expectations in notable ways. According to the company, the film is reaching an even broader audience on HBO Max (where it premiered as the fifth most popular movie after its first day of release) and performed about as well as expected for a “platform” release. But the company applauds the film for drawing a strong audience response (a high 4.1 rating on Letterboxd, with 3,000 fans), establishing a significant cultural footprint and, more important, for introducing Victor as a bold new voice whose achievement is being recognized during awards season.
Together
Release dates: July 30 (theaters), August 26 (PVOD)
Budget: High seven figures
U.S. box office: $21,273,159
Widest release: 2,302 theaters
Financing & Production
Six years ago, filmmaker Michael Shanks, whose Australian YouTube series The Wizards of Aus and animated short Rebooted put him on the map, is working with Mike Cowap of Australia’s Princess Pictures to make their feature debut, Together, a twisted body-horror about a couple that literally fuses together. They go through a few iterations with different financiers but can’t get the cast together to unlock the money, according to Cowap.
Then, WME, who also represents Shanks, gives the script to actor Dave Franco as a writing sample. Within a couple days after reading, according to Shanks, Franco and his real-life partner, actress Alison Brie, sign on to star and produce. While Princess teams up with U.S. producers Andrew Mittman and Kai Dolbashian of 1.21 Entertainment (Netflix’s Wednesday), WME’s packaging division reaches out to financiers, including Picturestart, Tango Entertainment and 30West. “Since he was a first-time filmmaker,” says Tango’s Lia Buman, “you needed to feel that the few money shots were going to be in good hands, and you could absolutely tell they would be.”
Production takes place over 21 days in Melbourne, subbing for Washington state, on a reported budget of less than $10 million.
Sales & Distribution
The film premieres in Sundance’s Midnight section in a prized slot at 9:30 p.m. at the Eccles on the first Sunday. “You knew while it was playing that the crowd loved the movie,” one producer recalls. “If you have a movie that plays that way, there’s absolutely going to be a significant market life for it.” According to reports from the festival, pretty much every buyer in town chases the movie—including A24, Apple and Amazon. Cowap remembers being in WME’s Park City condo being “courted by the buyers with significant sums of money on the table,” he recalls. A fellow executive tells him, “Don’t get used to this. It’s not normal.” Eventually, NEON wins the prize with a worldwide rights deal that lands somewhere around $15 to $17 million. Cowap admits, “Just to get into Sundance was extraordinary for us and already surpassed my expectations.”
Following a strategy similar to its huge 2024 horror hit Longlegs, NEON opens the movie in mid-summer in a big way on more than 2,300 screens. With a total gross of more than $10 million in its first few days of release, the film places sixth at the box office, but per-theater averages are far lower than Longlegs’s stunning per-screen opening weekend last year of $8,924. NEON employs several social promotions and stunts to try to break through the noise: Instagram posts featuring celebrity couples displaying various forms of PDA; a free Las Vegas wedding for one couple that gets engaged at a movie theater and tags the movie; a special “2 Become 1” (two-for-one) ticket deal during a few days in mid- to late August to celebrate National Couples Day. The film is a favorite of genre-loving critics, yet a C- CinemaScore suggests a mixed reaction from audiences.
The film ends up playing a total of seven weeks in the United States, managing to double its money, while the international box office is another $11 million. As an indication of its digital performance, the film ranks no. 7 on Fandango at Home’s Top 10 list for its first week on PVOD, just below such blockbusters as the latest Jurassic World and Mission: Impossible movies.
Recoupments
According to those close to the film, producers and financiers are in the black; NEON made some money on it, boosted by international sales and “downstream” success. “We’re very delighted because it surpassed my modest expectations,” says Cowap. “And I think that NEON is very happy, too. But whether it performed as well as everybody expected or not, for me, the best part is that we’ve kick-started a really great career from a really talented filmmaker.” Shanks’s next film, a sci-fi thriller called Hotel Hotel Hotel Hotel, is already set up at A24 and set to shoot in February, with Princess Pictures’ Cowap and HyperObject Industries’ Adam McKay and Todd Schulman producing.
Based on the success of their first project, Princess Pictures is now moving forward with its first slate of indie features. With the added benefit of an Australian government that subsidizes local production to some extent, Cowap says they will try to stick with a similar plan. “We just surround ourselves with people smarter than us,” he says, “mitigate the risks by spending other people’s money and try to develop projects that we think that there are buyers and an audience for.”
East of Wall
Release dates: August 15 (theaters), November 4 (TVOD)
Budget: less than $2 million
U.S. box office: $644,583
Widest release: 626 theaters
Financing & Production
“This was an incredibly risky film to get financed, from a first-time director and mostly unknown actors,” admits L.A.-based director and production designer Kate Beecroft of her debut feature East of Wall. “But I made a sizzle trailer, and that kind of changed my whole life.” Beecroft initially figures she would have to make a no-budget project based on the life of a South Dakota horse trainer named Tabatha Zimiga, starring her and family members. But a series of fortunate events leads her to find the team to make it on a decent budget.
Looking for legal advice for the film, she seeks out veteran director-producer Scott Frank (Out of Sight, The Queen’s Gambit) because she knew his son in elementary school. Frank is taken with the project and signs on as an executive producer. Meanwhile, Beecroft gets in touch with award-winning producer Lila Yacoub (Lady Bird) through her agent at Gersh at the time; after a few months, Yacoub also joins based on the strength of the trailer.
After mostly nonprofessional actors are cast, Jennifer Ehle (Dead Ringers) and Scoot McNairy (A Complete Unknown) join, which kickstarts some additional equity financing. Through a random encounter with a woman doing a fashion shoot at her house, Beecroft is eventually connected with the commercial company Stadium, which provides the biggest chunk of funding.
In 2023, the film shoots at Zimiga’s South Dakota ranch for 26 days, living and working with the local community. (South Dakota doesn’t have a tax credit, but the team chose it because the film’s authenticity was paramount.) To complete post-production on the film, Beecroft holds out for experienced sound designer Sergio Díaz (Roma), and the film isn’t ready until mid-2024.
Sales & Distribution
East of Wall premieres in Sundance’s NEXT section. “Nobody knew who we were,” says Beecroft, who admits that many people around Park City congratulated her on Sorry, Baby, mistaking her for Eva Victor. “I was like, ‘Sorry, that’s not me.’” But Beecroft, on advice from Yacoub, embraces being the underdog, seeing their selection in the sidebar category as a way to be a true “discovery” at the festival. Indeed, critics on the ground start buzzing about the title, and during Sundance itself, Sony Pictures Classics starts pursuing the film. After East of Wall wins the NEXT Audience Award, other distributors come inquiring, but Beecroft says they don’t want to be strung along, so they close a worldwide deal with Sony Pictures Classics, which is announced in February.
On August 15, Sony Pictures Classics takes an aggressive approach, releasing it to more than 600 screens to reach a broad audience. But the film’s $598 per-theater average suggests a narrower appeal.
Indeed, Beecroft prefers a more targeted approach. “You may have a distribution company, but you also have to do the grassroots stuff,” she says. “In South Dakota, I sent emails to horse communities, to women’s shelters, to native American colleges, and I wish I had done that in every state.” It worked locally: According to Beecroft, the film may be the best performing movie in South Dakota ever. “In Sioux Falls, we beat out Top Gun,” she says. “The biggest theater in the state was kicking out other movies to make room for East of Wall.” Beecroft also acknowledges the momentum wasn’t there in major markets, with the theatrical release ending after seven weeks.
Recoupments
With its strong reviews and unique approach, there is the hope that the film will be an “evergreen” title, staying alive through digital sales. For Beecroft, the film has helped launch her career. After Sundance, she signs with UTA and Rena Ronson for representation, with the goal of finding financing for a more ambitious second project. “I didn’t go to film school, so this experience has given me the confidence and inspired me,” she says. “I want to change the game for women filmmakers in the industry. My next film is a modern myth with sci-fi elements. When women are more recognized, hopefully they’ll give women larger budgets.”
Lurker
Release dates: August 22 (theaters), October 10 (SVOD, MUBI; TVOD)
Budget: Low to mid seven figures
U.S. box office: $633,965
Widest release: 462 theaters
Financing & Production
After receiving acclaim and attention as a writer on acclaimed series such as Netflix’s Beef, FX’s The Bear and his 2020 Black List script for Lurker, Alex Russell begins to try to make the screenplay into his debut feature. Originally designed to be made on a budget of around $8 million with Scott Rudin and a mini-studio in 2021, Russell refashions the project for a low- to mid-seven-figure budget to make the film independently with Case Study Films, a production company founded by actress Lily Collins (Emily in Paris, MaXXXine), filmmaker Charlie McDowell and producer Alex Orlovsky. McDowell, who had directed Lurker actor Théodore Pellerin, is eager to collaborate again with the rising star. The bulk of the financing comes from High Frequency Entertainment (also investors in Sorry, Baby), a production company led by Duncan Montgomery, Jack Selby and Case Study’s Orlovsky.
“It was risky,” admits Orlovsky. “The only thing we had to hang our hats on was the script, which was great and fairly commercial. But because Alex had a group of people who really supported him and believed in him—[rapper] Zack Fox, [composer] Kenny Beats and [Beef creator] Lee Sung Jin, among others—I thought we should trust that. That stuff matters if you’re trying to make a gut decision, and that felt meaningful to help us push forward.”
To mitigate the risk on a film with a first-time director and emerging actors like Pellerin and Archie Madekwe (whose Saltburn hadn’t yet been released), High Frequency brings on other partners, including commercial outfit Arts & Sciences, Italian producer Francesco Melzi d’Eril of MeMo Films and filmmakers Galen Core and Olmo Schnabel (Pet Shop Days), along with others in their respective concentric circles. “The financing ended up being a little more piecemeal that we would have wanted,” admits High Frequency’s Montgomery, “adding a new layer of work.” In spring 2024, Russell finishes production on the 25-day shoot.
Sales & Distribution
At Sundance, Lurker receives good buzz and a first offer during the festival. The film is also one of a select few Sundance premieres that lands a spot at the Berlinale. Some bidders, including Lionsgate, are in the mix, but the producers eventually decide to go with MUBI “because we felt they understood the movie and were going to market and sell the movie how we saw it,” says Montgomery. Later in February, Focus Features acquires international rights.
Leaning into the film as an edgy “parasocial, paranoid directorial debut,” the film’s marketing emphasizes its dark bromance and hip musical setting. Lurker’s Instagram page has active engagement, likely driven by its young stars’ followers, with Madekwe (currently at 256K) and Pellerin (at 42.4K). Critic quotes like RogerEbert.com’s “Slick, eerie, and deliciously messy” and Rolling Stone’s “Nightcrawler for the social media generation” are everywhere. MUBI sets a slow rollout, opening first in four theaters, reaping a healthy per-screen average of $14,246. Over Labor Day weekend, special 35mm screenings of the film unspool at the Music Box in Chicago and the Coolidge in Boston, which keeps up the momentum. In its third week, an expansion across 462 theaters reaches a ceiling of total grosses around $600,000.
Producers hail MUBI for its excellent marketing and release, but there is some frustration that the film didn’t make more at the box office.
Recoupments
Because of MUBI’s deal, the film remains profitable for the producers, but it’s hard to say whether MUBI will make money on the movie. The company declined to release any information or participate in this story, and public digital data is scant. By one unreliable metric, the film has a 3.6 out of 5 rating on Letterboxd with only 134 fans and 2,900 ratings on IMDB (for a score of 6.8 out of 10). (By comparison, Sorry, Baby has a 7.1 with 13,000 ratings.) But Lurker’s 94 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes (and an 84 percent on the Popcornmeter) suggests there may be enough goodwill out there to make it valuable for MUBI’s digital library. Certainly, rising talents Madekwe and Pellerin continue to soar, while writer-director Russell has a solid calling-card feature debut. As Orlovsky says, “Having an ongoing relationship with Alex is great, so the risk is justified.”
Predators
Release dates: September 19 (theaters), December 8 (SVOD, Paramount+)
Budget: $1.5 million
U.S. box office: $60,970
Widest release: 33 theaters
Financing & Production
After documentary filmmaker and editor David Osit (Mayor, Thank You For Playing) is connected through a friend to Sweet Relief, a division of Trey Parker and Matt Stone’s Park County, the company agrees to fully finance his new nonfiction project—a haunting expose of the infamous and influential Dateline NBC show To Catch a Predator. Together with producers Jamie Gonçalves and Oscar nominee Kellen Quinn (Sugarcane), they set out to make the film “with the luxury of not having to fundraise,” says Quinn. “And because the team believed the pop culture subject matter gave the doc some inherent commercial potential,” adds Quinn, “we got to focus on creating something exciting and provocative.”
Before the film is finished, Cinetic Media comes onboard for sales with the goal of launching at a top tier festival and selling the film to a distributor—no easy task these days for a nonfiction film.
Sales & Distribution
Predators lands a coveted U.S. documentary competition slot, which starts the buzz; the film is placed on lots of “Top Anticipated Films to See” lists going into the festival. Cinetic also hosts a pre-festival press screening for the film for New York critics before heading to Sundance. At the festival, reviews are solid (Variety calls it a “brilliant, subtly needling film [that] leaves us unnerved and alert.”) According to Quinn, several streamers put in decent competitive offers—something that Quinn admittedly “couldn’t believe” was happening given the changes in the market. “It’s not like there are that many players that offer streaming level deals at this point. I just assumed you can’t count on it anymore.”
MTV Documentary Films puts in the highest bid. “Because the film was fully financed by a single company, financial considerations were important,” he says, so they went with the offer. Plus, MTV Documentary was committing to a theatrical release to be handled by its frequent theatrical consultant, Michael Tuckman.
Predators opens theatrically in September at New York’s premier art house, the Film Forum. But in addition to the traditional art-house market, marketing pushes the doc’s “thriller/true crime” qualities, not as a “social issue doc,” says Tuckman, who also zeroes in on the Alamo Drafthouse chain as an exhibition partner, “because they are open to edgier fare.” On September 23, Alamo Drafthouse positions the film as part of its “Mystery Monday” series (the first time a documentary has been selected), which exposes the film to 33 theaters for the one-night-only event. “Letterboxd went crazy that night,” says Tuckman.
For the release, the team also relies on digital marketing firm High Council for its social media and web campaign. Traditional press is also strong, with stellar reviews (99 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and major feature articles in places such as the New York Times Magazine and others. But for all of its support, the documentary earns just over $60,000 in theaters. “You’re always hoping for more,” admits Tuckman. “But the fact that it was given a chance to have a theatrical footprint says a lot for what we were trying to do to raise the film’s profile.”
The film is also released theatrically in the U.K. and Canada, and hits Paramount+ in December.
Recoupments
Quinn takes the fact that the film even got a theatrical release at all as a win. “It’s obviously hard to release a doc theatrically these days, so it felt really good to put the film on the radar of people who don’t normally watch a lot of docs.” Paramount and MTV Documentary Films also commit to the film’s awards campaign, holding FYC screenings and special events, such as a screening and conversation hosted by George Stephanopoulos in November.
As of press time, it’s too early to say how the film’s digital release will fare. For Osit, it’s also too early to tell how the film has affected his career, but he believes the experience of making it and its reception has made him “feel much more equipped to work on larger productions and direct more,” he says. “Now, I feel pretty confident in the handful of projects I’m now working on that I know how to get them made, and hopefully how to get them funded.”
